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A shares opened red stock index futures volume and price rose, why stainless steel diving?

Time: January 3, 2020 09:00:06 Zhongcai
Original title: The stock market is in jubilation! A shares welcomed the start, stock index futures volume and price rose, major stock markets outside the board rose across the board! Stainless steel futures dived late because of. . . . . .
Yesterday was the first trading day of the new year. Affected by the announcement of a comprehensive RRR cut by the central bank, A shares ushered in a boom and hit a new stage high. The volume and price of the three major stock index futures rose, with a daily turnover of about 269.4 billion yuan. On the same day, the domestic futures market volume increased by 23.49% month-on-month to 11.278 million hands, and the transaction volume increased by 23.6% month-on-month to 98.872 billion yuan.


However, most of the commodity futures closed down: the non-ferrous sector fell, Shanghai lead fell more than 1%, Shanghai zinc and Shanghai nickel fell nearly 1%; the energy sector was green, fuel oil, rubber, and crude oil fell more than 1%; Iron ore and coking coal rose more than 1%, and hot coils and threads fell. It is worth noting that yesterday's stainless steel dived late in the day, closing down nearly 4%, becoming the largest decline in futures varieties, stainless steel continued to fall at night.


Also on the first trading day of the year, major global stock markets (except Japan and South Korea) were also in jubilation. US stocks rose more than 1%, hitting a record high again, or boosted by expectations of further progress in international trade relations and further easing of global central banks.


A shares "opened the door", the three major stock index futures volume and price rose yesterday, the first trading day of the A-share New Year, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened higher and higher, as of the close, the Shanghai index rose 1.15%, the Shenzhen index rose 1.99%, GEM The index rose 1.93%. On the disk, the net red plate rose more than 7%, and more than 15 stocks rose on Saturday . In addition, the seed industry, online games, wireless headsets, media and entertainment, semiconductors and other sectors rose more than 3%. On the news, the central bank decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on January 6 and release more than 800 billion yuan of long-term funds. The Shanghai Stock Exchange turnover was 327.197 billion yuan (the previous trading day's turnover was 226.764 billion yuan), and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 424.347 billion yuan (the previous trading day's turnover was 305.986 billion yuan).

On the same day, the three major domestic stock index futures fluctuated after opening higher, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and China Securities 500 stock index transactions topped the top two in the domestic futures market. As of the close, the main contracts of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and CSI 500 stock index futures had increased by more than 1%. The SSE 50 , CSI 300 stock index futures premium spot index, and the CSI 500 stock index futures were slightly discounted spot.



Ruida Futures said that the central bank's RRR cut will bring a huge boost to the market's first trading day in 2020, adding the mid-to-long term positive factors accumulated in the previous period, which will help the opening of the spring A-share market. The current market trend is relatively strong, the moving average continues to show a long position, and the weekly MACD indicator opening has further expanded, and the periodical upward trend is still expected to continue. Before the Spring Festival, the market will usher in the intensive disclosure of the annual report. After the market has risen sharply, the performance differentiation and institutional adjustments may have an impact on the market's rise. The IF2003 contract is worthy of attention.

"This time the central bank's RRR cut is 'as expected'." Mao Lei, analyst of Guotai Junan Futures Index, believes that the bullish sentiment in the market has rebounded rapidly, especially under the stimulation of the overall RRR cut policy. It is expected that the market will continue to be bullish. Because the information industry sector in the CSI 500 Index accounts for a relatively large proportion, the CSI 500 stock index futures rose relatively large.

Li Xiaohui, a financial engineering analyst at the Topology Derivatives Research Institute, believes that the relatively large increase in the CSI 500 stock index futures is mainly due to two reasons: First, with the introduction of various measures by the state to encourage the development of small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises, and the central bank's efforts to Relevant measures taken to solve the problem of high financing costs for SMEs have been implemented, and the profitability of SMEs is more promising. The second is that the current valuation of the CSI 500 Index is not high, and there is a possibility of making up, plus the CSI 500. Stock index futures still have a long-term discount. Investors will have a good return on the allocation of CSI 500 stock index futures. Based on multiple positive stimuli such as improvement of macroeconomic data, overall reduction of the central bank's quota, and the implementation of the new securities law registration system, A shares will enter a trending upward phase.

Late-season diving was nearly 4%. Stainless steel futures were unfavorable for yesterday ’s stainless-steel late-day diving, closing down nearly 4%, and becoming the most declining variety yesterday afternoon. At night, stainless steel fell another 2.08%.


Cao Yang, a non-ferrous analyst at the Topology Derivatives Research Institute, believes that the spot transaction of stainless steel has weakened, and the rapid destocking and trade-side replenishment of materials in the early stage will come to an end. The fundamentals will return to a weak state before the Spring Festival. The main reason. However, the return of the stainless steel futures basis is basically in place, and the future stainless steel futures have limited room for further decline.

Spot traders said that the decline in stainless steel futures prices was an expected thing, and the current output and prices of steel mills cannot support futures prices.

According to my Iron and Steel Network news, the quotation of stainless steel in Wuxi market remained weak yesterday. Most of the steel grades have stabilized, but 304 cold rolled spot prices have continued to fall, moving closer to the futures prices of steel mills. Hot rolling has been a little calm recently. Due to cost and resource considerations, the market is mainly shipping at a stable price, and the overall transaction is average. In terms of private steel mills, the base price of Chengde, Hongwang, Yanjin, and Delong raw edge is 13,750-13,900 yuan / ton, and there are few gold resources, and some of them are on the high side.

"The current spot price of stainless steel cold-rolled in the market is between 13900-14,000 yuan / ton, and the main stainless steel futures contract on the previous trading day (this Tuesday) closed at 14,410 yuan / ton, which is higher than the spot price. The first trading day of the new year is large After the fall, it should oscillate and consolidate for a period of time, and there is still no sign of a sharp drop in spot prices. "The above-mentioned traders said, but from a fundamental point of view, stainless steel prices will continue to fall back. In 2018, China actually produced more than 27 million tons of stainless steel, while the actual demand was more than 22 million tons, with a surplus of more than 4 million tons. In 2019 and 2020, there are new manufacturers put into production, so the current stainless steel is in a state of severe oversupply, and the supply continues to increase.

Regarding future stainless steel prices, the trader said that it should focus on the changes in steel mill output, steel mill production costs and ferronickel prices. At the same time, we must pay attention to the changes in the delivery policy of the previous period.

European and American stock markets rose across the board, Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to "Shanghai-London suspension"

On the first trading day of the new year, major European and American stock markets rose across the board.

The German DAX index closed up 136.00 points, or 1.03%, to 13,385.01 points; the British FTSE 100 index rose 58.16 points, or 0.77%, to 7600.60 points; the French CAC 40 index closed up 69.33 points, or 1.16%, to 6047.38 points; The Spanish IBEX35 index closed up 140.80 points, or 1.47%, to 9690.00 points; the Italian FTSE Index closed up 329.89 points, or 1.40%, to 23836.26 points; the European Stoxx 50 index closed up 44.68 points, or 1.19%, to 3793.15 point.

The three major U.S. stock indexes all hit new intraday and closing highs. The S & P 500 index closed up 27.10 points, or 0.84%, to 3257.85 points; the Nasdaq index closed up 119.60 points, or 1.33%, to 9092.19 points; the Dow Jones Index closed up 330.40 points, or 1.16%, to 28868.80 points. In addition, the trading volume of the three major stock indexes rose sharply from the previous trading day: the Dow index reported a volume of 241.6 million shares (the previous trading day was 193.3 million shares), and the Nasdaq's trading volume was reported at 2.586 billion shares (the previous trading day was 2.004 billion shares) ), The trading volume of the S & P 500 index was 1,696.9 million shares (the previous trading day was 1,261.2 million shares).

On the first working day of the year, the Shanghai-London Stock Connect became the focus of attention of the market, and the British pound fluctuated. At a regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday, a reporter asked: Reuters and other British media said that due to the tension in Sino-British political relations, the Shanghai-London Stock Exchange was suspended. Can it be confirmed? Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang did not confirm this news positively, but said that he hoped that the British side would create suitable conditions for the smooth development of practical cooperation in various fields between China and Britain.

From Christmas to New Year's Eve, the pound rose over 350 basis points against the US dollar, and last night the pound began to pull back sharply against the dollar. Financial website Forexlive analysts said that at the time of the worst liquidity, the pound was not driven by any news, and this unusual unilateral market was suspicious. If you look back, you will find that after the British election results were announced, the pound also rose sharply and then quickly fell. Judging from the trend of the past two months, the market seems to be seeking balance and testing the limits of the pound. 1.31 may be an important position.
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