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Half a month rose as much as 20% ethylene glycol "willful" again? Phased "takeoff" shocked downstream!

Time: December 21, 2019 10:09:04 China Finance
In just half a month, the spot price of ethylene glycol rose as much as 20%, and the futures contract rose more than 9% in recent months. The long-standing silence of ethylene glycol in the polyester industry chain has been heating up.

In other words, is this periodical surge that ethylene glycol is "willful" again? In fact, it is not, this time it is "duty", everything is in the market's expectations.

Phase-by-phase rapid increase, ethylene glycol fired another. From December 1st to 18th, the spot of ethylene glycol rose from 4700 yuan / ton to 5670 yuan / ton, an increase of 20.64%. The ethylene glycol contract in recent months 01 From 4,600 yuan / ton to 5033 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.41%. Faced with the recent obvious rise in ethylene glycol, industry insiders generally believe that although the increase exceeded market expectations, the short-term upward trend is expected.

If the current situation is carefully analyzed, it is not a surprise for this variety to quickly pull up the market.

According to Zhang Xiaozhen, an analyst at GF Futures, ethylene glycol dropped from around 4,000 yuan / ton from the end of last year to April this year, and the port inventory accumulated to more than 1.4 million tons at a historical high in recent years. In addition, coupled with the increase in demand brought by the downstream polyester load to maintain a high level, the inventory continued to decline, and the price rebounded rapidly to 5,300 yuan / ton in September and October and then quickly fell. Zhang Xiaozhen analyzed that mainly due to the expected release of capacity, the price of ethylene glycol has been maintained at a relatively low level. After mid-November, especially since December, port inventories have fallen to new lows in recent years. In addition, weather factors such as port closures and cargo pollution have led to scarce spot and insufficient liquidity. In this case, Hengli, The new units of Yankuang and Zhejiang Petrochemical have been put into operation frequently. It is understood that 900,000 tons of Hengli, 800,000 tons of Zhejiang Petrochemical and 400,000 tons of Inner Mongolia Yankuang have not reached the production capacity on time. At present, there is still no capacity release, which exceeds market expectations. Previously, the prices that were expected to be excessively suppressed due to the production have a certain price. The upward potential will inevitably bring the price of ethylene glycol.

According to the reporter, under the current situation of very low inventory, the increase in accidents is the main driving force for ethylene glycol.

"The market actually has certain expectations. The accumulation of expected stockpiles in the glycol port inventory has not yet appeared. Under the state of low inventory, it is more vulnerable to the impact of short-term uncertainties, such as weather, shipping schedules, and storage. Sudden supply shortages have led to sharp price fluctuations, "said Jiang Shuopeng, an analyst at Dadi Futures.

In the opinion of CITIC Futures analyst Xu Li, at present, low inventory is the basis to support spot prices. According to Longzhong data, on December 16, MEG port inventory in East China's main port area was about 292,500 tons, which was 31,600 tons lower than the previous week on Thursday, and a record low in the same period of nearly five years. Superimposed polyester production and sales volume this week, the market's tight mood on the spot has triggered price increases.

"Ethylene glycol port inventory is in the stage of continuous destocking. In recent weeks, the overall arrival of ethylene glycol in the main port has not been low, but due to weather factors, the port has been closed and the port inventory has remained destocked, and the supply of market circulation supplies has been limited. The spot supply is tight and at the same time the domestic ethylene glycol new equipment needs to wait for stable operation. The combination of multiple factors has caused the ethylene glycol spot to skyrocket. "Jiang Shuopeng said.

The upstream “winds and water rises”, and the downstream is no longer “calm”

Boosted by rising raw materials, the center of gravity of the prices of polyester products has moved upwards. Polyester filament yarns have risen by an average of 200-400 yuan / ton, and staple fibers have risen by an average of 300-00 yuan / ton. "In terms of production and sales, the production and sales of polyester and polyester yarns in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have picked up recently, and heavy volume has sometimes appeared. The downstream market as a whole has been boosted by the atmosphere of rising raw material prices. In recent years, the inventory of polyester products has been significantly de-stocked. The decline in polyester production has caused the supply side to fall. At the same time, the rebound in production and sales has driven de-stocking. Inventory is at a relatively low level over the same period. "Jiang Shuopeng said.

According to the reporter, the upstream raw material ethylene glycol is so high, the polyester filament market, which is the main force of downstream polyester, is not calm, and the highest price is 400 yuan / ton within a week. It can also be seen from the manufacturers' quotations in recent days that market confidence has significantly improved.

According to the statistics of China Silk Capital Network, as of December 18, the polyester yarn in Tongxiang No. 1 factory rose 100 yuan / ton, the Huzhou No. 1 factory rose 50-100 yuan / ton, and the large polyester factory in Jiangsu rose 100-300 yuan / ton. Wuxi FDY in a plant rose by 100-150 yuan / ton ... On the 19th, polyester filament yarns continued their upward trend, DTY products rose by about 50 yuan / ton, and polyester yarn in a plant in Zhejiang rose by 50-100 yuan / ton ...
Not only did the price centers of various polyester filament yarns rise strongly, the mainstream production and sales of polyester have also been concentrated from time to time, coupled with the end of the year, the increase in maintenance efforts of polyester manufacturers, but also added to the rise of polyester filament " "Fire" also greatly eased the inventory pressure of polyester manufacturers.

According to the data of China Silk Capital Network, as of December 17, the overall inventory of the polyester market dropped to 9-18 days, which is close to the level of the same period last year. In terms of specific products, POY inventory is 3 to 7 days, FDY inventory is around 7-12 days, and DTY inventory is about 15-20 days.

According to reporters, although the overall performance of downstream weaving companies this year is not as good as in previous years, cloth owners have some doubts about how much raw materials to prepare at the end of the year, but textile companies can start construction smoothly in the coming year. The price of filaments continues to rise.

"From the perspective of the weaving side, currently, due to the price increase in the polyester market, the stocking of weaving companies has advanced at the end of the year. At the same time, because of rising raw materials prices, the shipment of grey fabrics has improved slightly, alleviating the sharp rise in inventory. According to the recent market Understanding of the situation, the stocking volume has shown a positive performance. "Zhang Qiang, director of the China Silk Capital Network Acquisition and Editing Center, said that the amount of stocking mainly depends on three major factors: capital, own inventory and raw material prices. "The price of raw materials has been increased due to high stocks. It is difficult to rise due to high inventory. Losses have increased. Although shipments ease some capital pressure, this method of killing chickens for eggs and cash flow will undoubtedly hinder stocking, and the increase in stocking volume is only Within a small area. "

It is worth noting that, due to the increase in raw material prices, polyester filaments, bottle flakes, and chips are all in a deficit state. To make up for the losses, under the situation of relatively reasonable inventory, polyester factories have begun to increase year-end maintenance and increase moderately. price.

"Under the influence of buying up and not buying down and the traditional stocking at the end of the weaving year, downstream pulsed production and sales have improved, and polyester factory inventory has fallen correspondingly. The situation is difficult to come up. As the weaving market enters the end of the year at the end of January, there will be no obvious downstream demand to support it. "Zhang Qiang said.

After the heat has receded, the main logic of the market will focus on the production capacity. It is worth mentioning that, after more than ten consecutive days of "wind and water rise", in the past two days, the price of ethylene glycol began to loosen, and the heat was slowly falling.

In this regard, industry insiders said that the market heat of ethylene glycol is not optimistic, mainly due to downstream polyester companies during the Spring Festival production reduction and maintenance, facing seasonal accumulation, plus the first quarter of the new ethylene glycol plant production, and currently At the price level, the maintenance device has the power to resume production, which has been partially reflected in the increase in the overall load of ethylene glycol. In their view, the heat of the glycol market is difficult to sustain.

On this point, Zhang Qiang also agreed. "The current market heat is too large to magnify the recent status quo and ignore the long-term situation. The fundamentals are weaker than the capital. The later heat will gradually fade away with downstream conditions." Zhang Qiang said.

At present, the low ethylene glycol inventory is still the main factor affecting the market, and the accumulation of anticipation and the actual low level of destocking are the current major market contradictions.

"As the price of ethylene glycol rebounds, the profits of various processes are obviously repaired, the cash flow of coal-to-ethylene glycol is turned into profit, the start of equipment continues to rise, and domestic supply is expected to rebound at a low level. As for imports, with the future weather and shipping schedules As uncertainties recede, the port's arrival volume will be repaired, and short-term spot shortages will improve. On the demand side, polyester starts will decline, and the end of the year will soon enter the Spring Festival centralized maintenance period, which is expected to restrict MEG inventory consumption. "Jiang Shuopeng Called.

In the context of capacity expansion, the trading logic of chemical products is basically around production. "In the case of higher production expectations, first suppress the processing fee to the bottom of the price range. If the production capacity is not realized, at the same time, based on the periodic inventory situation, driven by low inventory and low processing fees, the price will be raised to the high of the period range. As the release of production capacity is continuously confirmed, the price will fall again. "Xu Li said that before the actual production capacity growth was realized and the accumulation inflection point appeared, ethylene glycol maintained a range of oscillations and prices still supported, but the long-term trend was bearish.

"For the ethylene glycol market, changes in the supply side have a greater impact on prices." Zhang Xiaozhen said that most of the weaving companies enter the Spring Festival holiday in early January. At present, the load of polyester on the direct demand side is relatively stable. For the time being, there was no significant decline in December. The port inventory of ethylene glycol was low, and the supply situation had a greater impact on prices. "The focus is on the increase in domestic ethylene glycol load, arrival and port inventory, and the commissioning of new devices. In the medium and long term, the supply of ethylene glycol is sufficient. New capacity planned for production in 2020 is initially estimated. Near 6 million tons, the first half of the year was also 2 million to 3 million tons. The pressure on the supply side is relatively large. Under such an environment of production, ethylene glycol has been weak for a long time. "

"In the long run, there are still many new production units to be put into operation, especially new coal chemical plants. In the future, it will still face problems such as profit repairs and long commissioning cycles. However, the integration of new integrated plants is expected to be relatively smooth and will continue to increase ethylene glycol. Domestic supply pressure. At the same time, downstream polyester production growth may continue to decline, and new polyester production capacity is expected to increase; while the downstream weaving industry is still in a downward cycle, and downstream grey fabric yarns are still at a high level of destocking, which is expected to restrict polyester The new production capacity is in the process of production. "In Jiang Shuopeng's view, the supply and demand of ethylene glycol in the medium and long-term will shift from tight to loose, and the commissioning of new equipment and weak demand will still restrict the price of ethylene glycol.

According to the reporter's understanding, although the raw materials started to fall in the past two days, the downstream polyester filament market still maintained its upward trend. In this regard, Zhang Qiang said that because of the tradition of stockpiling before and after the Spring Festival, and the current situation of orders received by weaving enterprises in some regions at the end of the year, there has been a positive recovery signal. "At the same time, from the current operating strategy of the polyester factory, the chances of choosing a large price promotion are reduced. It may even bring positive feedback on production and sales due to the overhaul of the factory during the Spring Festival maintenance. In this way, it will reduce the significant burden during the Spring Festival. The situation of the library. "In Zhang Qiang's view, if there is no major change in the upstream, it is expected that the polyester filament market will not fall sharply before the Spring Festival.
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